The Pants enter 2007 with just one question that we’ll all agree really isn’t all that important anyway:

Who’s their quarterback?

Ouch.

Oh sure, they’ll tell you that Jake Delhomme is their guy. But they don’t mean it. At least they might not. I don’t think they’re really sure. And that’s a problem. You don’t play it by ear at QB. But it looks like that’s exactly what they’re planning to do.

Jake has been a hell of a QB for the Pants for the last few years, there’s no denying that. But you get the feeling that they’ve always wanted something better. And now that they finally have someone else on the roster who, at least theoretically, doesn’t suck, you have to wonder how long they’ll be able to resist the urge to go with the younger, bigger, stronger former first-pick-overall who still has the “But I was in Houston!” thing taking much of the heat for his underwhelming performance so far.

It’s hard to blame them. Since peaking in 2004, Jake has been on the downslide the last couple of years. Still, Jake was actually slightly better than Carr last year, with the sole exception being that Carr seems to be more accurate. But again, there’s that whole Houston factor working in Carr’s favor, along with the physical attributes and youth.

Offensively, Carolina is hard to figure out. They were almost identical in terms of yardage to 2005, when they went 11-5, both on the ground and through the air. DeAngelo Willams vs. Stephen Davis was basically a wash in terms of yardage, as was Keyshawn/Carter vs. Proehl/Colbert. Time of Possession and penalties were basically a wash.

So what the hell happened?

Two things: They stopped scoring, and they couldn’t convert on third down. The Pants dropped from 8th in the NFL in scoring in 2005, to 27th in 2006. Yowza. Two thirds of the downslide came on the ground, 17 rushing TDs to 7, while passing TDs dropped from 25 to 19. Four of those six passing TDs were ones that last year went to Steve Smith.

The most striking difference seems to be Stephen Davis vs. DeAngelo Williams, and their respective ability to get into the end zone. In 2005, Davis rushed for 567 yards and 12 TDs. Williams wasn’t far off last year yardage-wise (501 yds) but Williams only reached the end zone twice, once rushing and once receiving.

The other big difference is that Carolina only converted 31.1% of their 3rd downs last year, good for dead last in the league and down from 42.2% in 2005. Again, this can be attributed mainly to Steve Smith’s down year last year. His receptions for first downs dropped from 71 to 50.

The Pants have high hopes for Dwayne Jarrett, and they should. But it’ll be a tall order for Jarrett to duplicate Keyshawn’s 70 receptions for 815 yards and 42 first downs as a rookie, let alone exceed them in any significant way. Especially if he’s trying to develop a rapport with two quarterbacks, while given a fraction of the normal practice reps with each.

So who the hell knows? The Pants were four points away from a Lombardi Trophy in 2003 with, statistically, the same Steve Smith and the same Jake Delhomme from 2006. The difference then was that Stephen Davis was all-world that year. In 2005, they went 11-5, again with the same Jake Delhomme and a weaker, but still potent rushing attack. But Steve Smith had a career year. What it seems to come down for the Panthers is someone having that really huge year. If someone does, they’re a contender. If not, they hover around 500.

So on the surface, it looks like the questions are as follows:

Who is the real Steve Smith? Is he the 100-catch, 1600 yard, 70 first down, 12 touchdown, 30 big-play best wide receiver in the league, like in 2005? Or is he the 80-catch, 1100 yard, 50 first down, 7 or 8 touchdown, 20 big-play really-good receiver, like in 2003 and 2006? Or is he the kid from that Republican cartoon show on FOX?

Can either DeShaun Foster or DeAngelo Williams become a Stephen-Davis-esque touchdown machine?

Were the Pants’ inability to convert third downs and inability to score last year flukes?

Is David Carr better than Jake Delhomme? How long will they wait to find out? And even if Carr is better, will it matter? Is any incremental improvement Carr may bring at that position worth the negative effects of a quarterback controversy, which always seems to turn people into assholes?

Defensively, the Panthers are plenty good enough as-is, and with some good health they stand to get back to that top-3 to top-5 kind of level that they were at in 2005. Thomas Davis is looking like a beast, and when healthy, Dan Morgan is a stud. The Pants have three outstanding corners and Mike Minter is still getting the job done at free safety. Jon Beason should be a fine addition, and Tim Shaw has “steal” written all over him.

But for all the bluster over how the Pants’ 2006 season was derailed by injuries, the thing is… that’s kinda what happens when you have a bunch of dudes who are injured a lot. “Barring injury” is always the first qualifier for any kind of sports prediction, but for some players and teams, it just means a little more. The Pants are one of those teams.

Since 2000, the Pants have gone 7-9 in every even-numbered year. And yes, I’m including 2006, when they would have been 7-9 had the Saints not been resting their starters in week 17. Fortunately for the Pants, 2007 is an odd-numbered year, and they were 11-5 in both 2003 and 2005. I don’t think Carolina has what it takes offensively to get to 11-5 this year, so we’ll split the difference.

Prediction: 9-7, 2nd in the NFC South, 50/50 shot at a wildcard pending what happens over on the west coast.

But the question marks and the potential for season-long issues at quarterback could blow that all to hell. I could just as easily see 6-10.