Down in [tag]Tampa[/tag], they’re expecting a bounce-back year from the [tag]Bucs[/tag] and their brand new bearded quarterback, Fabulous [tag]Jeff Garcia[/tag].

Boy, they’re gonna be pretty pissed off in a couple of months.

It’s not that I don’t think they’ll be an improved team. In fact, I started writing this fully expecting to predict something along the lines of 7 wins for the Bucs this fall.

Fabulous Bearded Jeff should be a significant upgrade from the parade of boobs they ran out there last year. Surely [tag]Cadillac Williams[/tag] is better than the 800 yards and 1 TD he put up last year. [tag]Gaines Adams[/tag] and [tag]Cato June[/tag] ought to be fine additions to an aging defense that gave up 22 points per game last year.

Then I looked at their schedule. Ouch, babe.

Their first three games are at [tag]Seattle[/tag], and home vs. the [tag]Saints[/tag] and [tag]Rams[/tag]. They then take their 0-3 record to [tag]Charlotte[/tag] for a game that might very well be considered a “must-win” even in week four. Which sucks for them, because for some reason they can’t beat [tag]Carolina[/tag]. They’re 1-7 against the Pants over the last four years. Oof.

The Bucs had better win that game, because if not, [tag]Gruden[/tag] Watch begins on Monday, September 31. And they’ll be sporting an 0-4 record… on their way to [tag]Indianapolis[/tag]. Guh. Then the 0-5 Bucs return home for [tag]Vince Young[/tag] and the [tag]Titans[/tag].

At [tag]Detroit[/tag], home vs. Jacksonville and Arizona lead the Bucs into a week-10 bye that they will have been praying for for a month and a half. That is, when they’re not praying for the sweet release of death.

Will Gruden even make it to the bye?

The magic 8-ball says: Outlook not so good.

Like I said, it’s not that the Bucs won’t be better this year than they were last year. But that schedule is just brutal. Their first five games are against teams with potent passing attacks, and the secondary is by far the weakest link on a weakening Tampa defense. (I know I’m flying a little fast and loose referring to Seattle as a “potent passing attack” but it’s potent enough.) [tag]New Orleans[/tag], Indy and St. Louis were one, two and four last year in passing offense, respectively. And Carolina has [tag]Steve Smith[/tag] and [tag]Dwayne Jarrett[/tag].

The bottom line is that, while Tampa should be improved, I simply can’t see them being improved enough to overcome their early schedule. And once you start down that road, once the losses start mounting up, all bets are off.

When I look at those first nine games, it just seems to me that 3-6 is an optimistic prediction. Maybe they lose all those games by 3 points or less, but it’s 3-6 all the same. And they could easily lose any or all of the three games that the optimistic projection has them winning (Tennessee, Detroit and Arizona.)

Their post-bye schedule eases up a bit, with two against [tag]Atlanta[/tag], and [tag]Houston[/tag] and [tag]Washington[/tag]. I’m sure the interim coach will appreciate that.

You have to figure that the offense will be better. Hell, they were one of only two teams in the league (Oakland) to have scored less than 14 points per game last year. Ouch. But how much better is anyone’s guess, and mine is “not better enough.”

Fabulous Bearded Jeff was a damn fine NFL quarterback… five years ago. He had a resurgent year last year. Kinda. But too much is being made of it. It could just as easily have been a death rattle as a resurgence. What’s striking is the atypical lack of interceptions last year. You don’t just learn to stop throwing INTs at age 36. You get lucky for a year.

And it’s not like Fab Jeff’s “resurgence” last year was to the level of 2000 Jeff, when he was a great quarterback. It was more along the lines of 2003 Jeff, when he was a decent quarterback, but had San Francisco thinking about moving on.

Fab Jeff in 2006 was a classic case of catching lightning in a bottle. The INT abberation inflated his passer rating to a level that makes him look better than he actually was. He didn’t have to stand up to the rigors of a full season. And of course there’s always the element of ESPN hype when expectations are low and a backup QB “saves” a team from tanking after their starter goes down. The fact that the Eagles are a far better team than either Cleveland or Detroit helped too.

The problem now is that he’s no longer on a team that’s far better than Cleveland or Detroit. He’s back on a team that’s right there with Cleveland and Detroit.

So we have a QB who, at 37 years old, will be depending on his team to elevate him. And we have a team who is depending on a savior at QB to elevate them. This won’t end well.

But Tampa’s real problem is on defense. Under Gruden, Tampa has never had a scoring offense in the top half of the league. They’ve only been in the top half of the league in total offensive yards once under Gruden. In fact, the only time in franchise history that they’ve been in the top half of the league in both offensive yards and scoring, John McKay was roaming the sidelines. Wow. They can win with a substandard offense. It doesn’t seem like they have much of a choice.

The real problem is that 2006 was Tampa’s worst year defensively since the Sam Wyche era. And the drop was not only sudden, it was huge. 8th to 21st in points allowed, and 1st to 14th in yards allowed. Thud.

Question: What do all of these players have in common? Simeon Rice, Greg Spires, Kevin Carter, Derrick Brooks, Brian Kelly, Ronde Barber

Answer: They all voted for Dwight Eisenhower.

Which might explain why Tampa’s defense racked up a whopping 11 INTs last year (tied for 28th in the league) and an equally-crappy 25 sacks (tied for 30th in the league.)

Old defensive ends and old defensive backs means lots of points through the air for the opponent. Tampa allowed 26 passing touchdowns last year, good for 30th in the league.

And what’s worse is that the depth behind the geezers up front and out back are all rookies. Gaines Adams should be able to help right away, but in the defensive backfield, Tanard Jackson and Sabby Piscitelli aren’t exactly cinch all-pros in waiting.

So where does all this leave the Bucs for 2007? Well, I’ve kind of painted myself into a corner here because I’ve already put the Falcons in the division basement at 4-12, and my preconceived notion was that the Bucs were going to at least be better than that. I still believe that the Bucs will be “better” than 4-12, but I’m not so sure anymore that their record will reflect that.

Prediction: Chucky’s out by Halloween. We’ll give them a win against Carolina in week 17 to stumble to 5-11, because we already said they’d be 3rd in the division.

Rex Ryan, come on down!