Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. For the Tampa Bay Bucs, last year was one of those times.

Oh, they were good too. They were about as good defensively as the Saints were offensively. That in and of itself qualifies as pretty "lucky", given that half their defense remembers the Taft administration and the other half doesn’t remember the Reagan administration.

But even more than that, Zeus must really have a boner for Fabulous Jeff, a guy who was spanked by Grover Cleveland on two non-consecutive occasions. Either that or Hera was really trying to stick it to Ganymede.

It’s not that Fab Jeff was particularly good. He hasn’t really been particularly good since Paul Tagliabue’s 2001 ban on assless chaps. He only threw for 2440 yards (187.7 yards per game) which was good for 19th in the league. Not surprisingly, he only ran for 116 yards, a career low (not counting 2005 and 2006 when he wasn’t a full time starter.) Tampa’s offense was 16th in passing yards, 18th in total yards and 19th in points scored.

What’s surprising is that they weren’t worse than that. Joey Galloway somehow managed to put up 1000 yards again, despite missing week 17 to attend a reunion of World War I vets. Ike Hilliard managed to put up 722 yards even though he routinely loses pregame foot races against Monte Kiffin. Michael Clayton and Maurice Stovall just suck. Alex Smith is among the least productive starting tight ends in the league as a receiver, and Jerramy Stevens has worse hands than Devery Henderson.

Late in the season last year, when the Bucs’ offense was on the field, FOX and CBS started scrolling a message across the bottom of the screen: "Do not adjust your set. This is actual game speed." It’s nothing short of astounding that this group was even able to put up 20.9 points per game.

Defensively, the Bucs were legitimately very good. Gaines Adams, Barrett Ruud and Tanard Jackson transformed a defense that in 2006 looked like it was about ready to be put out to pasture. Not so much against the run, where Tampa was 17th in the league. But they were 1st in the league against the pass, and 3rd in points allowed, allowing only 16.9 points per game.

We Saints fans know what happens to teams who are very good on one side of the ball, and suck horribly on the other side of the ball. They end up 8-8, give or take a game. And just like the Saints, that’s where Tampa ended up last year.

Oh sure, Tampa fans will scream that they sat their starters in week 17, and coulda shoulda woulda been 10-6. Maybe, but the opponent was The Great Matt Moore. Fabulous Jeff sat, but Luke McCown put up more passing yards than Jeff had put up since week 8. Joey Galloway sat, but Chad Lucas put up 82 yards. In the two weeks prior, Galloway had put up 29 yards and 7 yards. Several defensive starters sat, but Matt Moore still only put up 174 yards passing, Steve Smith only had 48 yards receiving, and the Pants still turned the ball over twice. So I’m not giving Tampa an automatic week 17 win with their starters, and I’m not buying that it was basically a forfeit because they sat a few guys.

Actually, on second thought, I’m going to go ahead and give them week 17. Why? Because I’m about to throw the same kind of thing right back at them, and assert that the Bucs went 9-7 (or 10-6, if you’re a Bucs fan) because they were the luckiest team in the league last year.

Week 12: Washington fumbles in their own territory 4 times over the span of 16 plays. Holy shit. Tampa turns those four fumbles into 1 TD and 3 FGs, or 16 of the 19 points they ended up with on the day. Washington outgained Tampa 316-15 in the second half, and Tampa didn’t have a single first down after halftime. But Jason Campbell threw two 4th quarter INTs in Bucs territory, the second one occurring in the end zone with 7 seconds left on what would have been the winning score for Washington.

"But you’ve got to give the defense credit for creating those turnovers!" Maybe, kinda, I guess. Both INTs were terrible decisions and even worse throws by Campbell. But okay fine, Barber and Kelly made the plays. But the other FOUR turnovers had very little to do with Tampa’s defense at all. The Redskins simply couldn’t hold onto the ball. And each time, it was just after Fabulous Jeff had been holding the ball, so who knows what kinds of lubricants might have been on there.

Week 13: Saints fans might want to skip this part. The Saints are up by 3 with 3:36 left in the game and in possession of the ball at their own 40. The Saints could take it to the 2-minute warning, punt, and pin the Bucs inside their 20. A first down probably ices the game completely. On second down, the entire team completely forgets how to play football. Reggie Bush shits his pants, Devery Henderson shits his pants, and all of a sudden it’s Tampa’s ball at the Saints’ 37.

"But Tampa still had to go 37 yards and score! And Chuckie pulled out the brass ones by going for it on 4th instead of tying the game with a field goal! And the Bucs dominated the rest of that game anyway!" Fine. That doesn’t change the fact that the Saints snatched defeat from the jaws of victory and handed that win over on a platter.

And I’m not even going to count week 9, when the game was iced on an "interception" with 2:39 left, where Jermaine Phillips clearly only got one foot down in bounds, and Arizona couldn’t challenge because they were out of time outs. (I’m not counting it because even if the Cardinals had gotten a TD, it only would have tied the game.)

Elite defense or not, what separated the 9-7, 2007 NFC South Champion Bucs from 8-8 or 7-9 was that they were luckier than a leprechaun banging Scarlett Johansson on a bed of four leaf clovers at the end of a rainbow.

This year? Well, it’s hard to see their defense regressing. Then again, it’s hard to see them getting much better either. If anything, Brian Kelly is gone, and Ronde Barber and Derrick Brooks aren’t getting any younger. Phillip Buchanon played well over his head last year, and is just as likely to regress as he is to maintain. But my assumption is that Tampa’s defense will remain stout, even "elite." Hell, they always are.

But this team is going to continue to sink offensively. It’s only a matter of time until Zeus sends an eagle down to bring Fabulous Jeff to Mount Olympus so they can get that party started. Until then, there’s a good chance he’ll find himself with at least a handful of weeks to luxuriate in the whirlpool and catch up on his Oscar Wilde while Brian Griese… uh… does whatever it is Brian Griese does. Joey Galloway will be 37 (and he really, really hit a wall at the end of last year.) Ike Hilliard is 32. Teeny tiny little Warrick Dunn is 33. Cadillac Williams should be back, at least for a while. But Cadillac Williams isn’t really very good. And they’ve done absolutely nothing to improve their passing game, unless you count Dexter Jackson, Antonio Bryant and Ben Troupe as "something" (hint: you shouldn’t.) They’ll be fortunate if they can average 14 points per game this fall.

And there’s no way in hell the Bucs get as lucky this year as they did last year.

Prediction: 7-9, 3rd place in the NFC South