Pop quiz, hotshot: When a head coach takes a team deep into the playoffs, and then the team finishes the following two consecutive seasons below 500, what does history suggest the future holds for the team and for the coach?

It’s been three weeks since the unofficial death of the 2008 season. Getting their asses handed to them by a mediocre team with a vastly overrated rookie quarterback was just icing on the cake. It’s time to shift focus.

The question is no longer whether or not the Saints have it in them to go on a run and get back into the playoff race. They don’t. The question now is just where in the hell is this team headed under Sean Payton and Mickey Loomis?

So what does history tell us about NFL head coaches who have early success and then fall below 500?

Well, there are two potential outcomes. First, the team bounces back after a single sub-500 season. This happens all the time, and you can find a down year on just about any coach’s resume. For head coaches with long careers, it’s probably happened more than once.

But two consecutive sub-500 seasons? That’s a whole different ballgame. And the ending is always the same. It doesn’t get any better, and sooner or later a change is made. The only variable is how many seasons management flushes down the toilet before making the change.

Oh sure, there are exceptions that prove the rule. I’ve already looked them up. If you wanted to, you could go back to guys like Paul Brown, George Halas, Sid Gillman and Don Shula and you could reel off a laundry list of exceptions. But it was a different era, and surely you’ll agree that for the most part, it’s not really relevant to any discussion of the modern day NFL. So let’s arbitrarily set "modern day" at the last 30 years.

There are exactly four examples of head coaches who recovered: Jon Gruden, Jeff Fisher, Steve Mariucci and Bill Cowher.

Cowher’s Steelers lost the 1995 Super Bowl to Dallas. The Steelers subsequently went 7-9 in 1998 and 6-10 in 1999 before finally winning the 2005 Super Bowl. Mariucci went 13-3 and 12-4 in his first two years with the 49ers. They dropped to 4-12 in 1999 and 6-10 in 2000 before going back to the playoffs in 2001 and 2002. In their first non-Oiler year, Fisher’s Titans lost the 1999 Super Bowl to the Rams. Five years later, the Titans went 5-11 and then 4-12. I think it’s safe to say that the Titans are officially "back" now though. Gruden’s Bucs won the Super Bowl in 2002, and then went 7-9 and 5-11 the next two years. They regrouped to the tune of 11-5 in 2005.

And that’s it, folks. It’s just those four.

Furthermore, what those four have in common, and what probably allowed them to recover, is that each had a track record of sustained success before suffering their down years. Each had already established that he wasn’t a one-year wonder. Fisher had already coached the Titans to 4 seasons of 11+ wins and a Super Bowl appearance. Cowher had coached Pittsburgh to 6 straight playoff seasons and a Super Bowl appearance. Mariucci, 2 straight seasons of 12+ wins. Gruden, 3 straight playoff seasons (though the first 2 were with Oakland.)

Otherwise, the overwhelming preponderance of historical evidence suggests that when a head coach brings you to the playoffs, and then the team slips to below 500 for two consecutive years, that’s all she wrote. It’s not going to get better. Might as well move on rather than belabor the issue.

It doesn’t necessarily indicate that the guy is a bad head coach. There are plenty of examples of guys whose success comes on his second stop. Bill Belichick, anyone? But it requires the change of scenery. Without that crucial component, the inevitable result is nothing more than prolonged floundering for both the coach and the franchise.

I don’t think Sean Payton is a bad head coach. To the contrary, I still think he has the potential to be a very good one. I still think that he’s a brilliant offensive mind. I still believe him when he says that he wants to run the ball more. I think that he finally got a firm handle on how to most effectively use Reggie Bush this year. All head coaches have their weaknesses, and all first-time head coaches have a whole other set of issues to work through. I think that Payton’s weaknesses are manageable. Unfortunately, I don’t see anybody around to manage them.

Three years hence, this defense still blows. It’s clear that they’ve been trying to fix it. It’s also clear that they’re failing to fix it. Is that Gary Gibbs’ fault? I’m sure that Message Board Guy knows exactly what Gibbs should be doing that he isn’t, but I’m not going to sit here and pretend I’m smart enough to have it all figured out. But it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that the defense isn’t carrying its weight on this team. If Gibbs can’t make it work any better than it is with the guys he has, then it’s time to find someone who can.

Perhaps Gibbs doesn’t have the horses he needs in order to be successful. If that’s true, then who’s fault is that? Who drafted Roman Harper and signed Kevin Kaesviharn? Whose fault is it that Scott Fujita and Scott Shanle are the best we can do at OLB? Who signed Jason David, Randall Gay and Aaron Glenn? Who drafted Usama Young? Who decided that Charles Grant and Will Smith were good long-term investments?

Surely Gibbs didn’t make these decisions, but surely there’s someone out there who can produce better results with these guys. Sean Payton and Mickey Loomis need to find him, because the Saints aren’t in a position to overhaul the defensive depth chart.

Secondly, this team needs a director of player personnel. There needs to be somebody to tell Sean Payton "Here’s your kicker, here’s your punter, you don’t need a wideout in the first round, I’m not trading a 2nd and a 5th for an injury prone douchebag 8-year veteran at a position already stocked with at least three serviceable options on an already top 5 offense, and Jason David is not the right guy for the defense you’ve chosen to run. Don’t like it, tough shit. Coach the players on your roster."

Maybe someday Sean Payton will be "the next Bill Parcells" and be legitimately qualified to oversee all aspects of football operations. But for now, he’s a quarterbacks coach and offensive playcaller who’s feeling his way through his formative years as a head coach. He needs help.

If he gets it, there’s still hope. If not, then it’s just a matter of time until this team is right back at square one.