Part two of our draft preview series begins right……. now. We’ve decided to include ends in with the tackles. Why? Because there are only two defensive tackles really worth talking about, and there’s apparently a fringe element out there who think that the Saints are gonna draft an end and then immediately trade Will Smith for three picks and some other clean-cut, non-threatening, parent-friendly rapper. Like Dr. Dre.

Trading Smith right now is, of course, a mindbogglingly stupid idea. He’s under contract for 2008 and 2009, and you could easily franchise him for 2010 if need be, so it’s not like the Saints are "about to let him walk for nothing" any time soon. And if he eventually leaves in free agency, then so be it. Contrary to popular opinion, the Saints wouldn’t be losing him "for nothing" because retaining his services for those other two or three years is valuable in and of itself.

Look, it’s perfectly reasonable to have been disappointed in the overall performance of the ends last year, but it’s ridiculous to consider replacing either one, given the current circumstances, no matter how much (specious) foresight a move like that might seem to display.

Even more ridiculous is the suddenly popular "strategy" of taking a guy you have no use for because all the pundits seem to agree that he should have gone higher, only to "hold him for ransom" until some other poor schmuck offers you his entire draft for the rights to the guy. Which is kind of like saying a gift certificate is more valuable than an equal amount of cash.

It just doesn’t work that way. The unused pick always has more value than a player selected with that pick. The player is a gift certificate. The pick is cash. The only reason you’d ever want to pick a guy specifically to trade him to a team below you is if you’ve already worked out two trades and one or the other is 100% sure to happen.

Let’s assume you’re trading down from 10 to 15, and the team at 15 had two third rounders. You agree with the team at 15 that if "your guy" is still on the board, you’ll take the lower third rounder. But if somebody else scoops him, you’ll get the higher third rounder. But either way, "their guy" is available at 10 and in order to get the trade done, you have to take their guy and then wait until 15 to finalize the compensation. Perfectly reasonable, and occasionally necessary.

But that’s far different from picking a guy in the hope that some chump GM will soil his pants and offer you whatever you want for the guy. Fans love to think that their GM bent some other GM over. This is the 21st century American "anybody with balls can earn a living playing poker" mentality. They want their guy to "win the poker game" and "force" the other guy into a lopsided deal in your guy’s favor. Lots of people like to point to the Eli Manning situation as an example of San Diego doing that to the Giants. By selecting Manning first, San Diego "called the Giants’ bluff" and forced the deal on their terms. Right?

Wrong. San Diego called Manning’s bluff. San Diego made that pick knowing that there wasn’t a chance in hell that Manning would actually hold out the entire year and go back into the draft. But everybody knew that. Make no mistake, had the trade never materialized, Eli would have been the Chargers’ starting QB. That’s why it worked. Because San Diego wanted a QB regardless, and they didn’t care if it took Eli some time to get over himself and learn to deal with it. If they could get Rivers and a shit ton of lagniappe from the Giants instead, well that would be fine too.

It took a very, very specific and uncommon set of circumstances for that deal to have gone down the way it did. And in the end, both teams are happy they made the deal. Nobody bent anybody over. And it certainly isn’t any kind of blueprint for how to "force" some other GM to pay your price.

Say Matt Ryan falls to 10 for some reason. Message Board Guy would tell you that you shop around for a trade down and demand a king’s ransom from anybody who nibbles. Then you take Ryan, and now that you’ve "got them over a barrel" you demand 50% more than the previous best offer. Problem with that is that you have no use for Ryan. So you don’t have anybody over a barrel, you’ve just put yourself over a barrel. You’ve squandered any leverage you had because you’ve just exchanged $100 cash for a $100 gift certificate at a store that doesn’t sell anything you want. It’s an ass-backwards way of handling your assets.

Wait, was this supposed to be about defensive linemen? Shit.

In 2006, the Saints were 23rd in the NFL in rushing defense. Last year, the Saints were able to improve a full ten spots to 13th in the NFL. And contrary to popular opinion, it wasn’t because teams just threw on us all day. I mean, they did that too, but not at the expense of rushing attempts. Opponents only rushed on the Saints 10 fewer times last year.

Meantime, the Saints were 3rd in the NFL in pass defense in 2006, added two new corners (and tried to add a third, but he didn’t stick) and dropped all the way to 30th last year.

So why on earth should the Saints take a defensive lineman over a defensive back?

There are plenty of reasons. But let’s start here: Statistically, somewhere around half of the Saints’ "improvement" in the run defense can be directly attributed to the absence of Ron Mexico. Not that Ron is coming back anytime soon, but the point is that half the improvement came pretty much by default. It wasn’t so much about anything they did, it was more about something Michael Vick did to a bunch of dogs. The run defense wasn’t nearly as improved as it looked last year. They just had a very specific thorn removed from their side.

The other half? Consider that while everybody’s pissed at Fresh Prince for dwindling sack totals, he did set a career high in tackles last year. Meantime Shanle’s total tackles dropped precipitously from his career year in 2006. In 2006, a big part of the problem with the run defense was due to backs running right past Will Smith. Last year, Smith was making those tackles far closer to the line of scrimmage than Shanle was the previous year.

But that comes at a cost. Specifically, putting shackles on Smith. If you want to be able to turn Smith loose to go after the quarterback, you have to make sure that you’re not gonna get gashed for 20 yards on a draw off left tackle on 3rd and 8. And you have to give him help by collapsing the middle of the pocket. And you have to keep the run defense from reverting to its shitty 2006 ways to create the pin-your-ears-back down and distance situations in the first place.

This is what I really like about the way the Saints’ player personnel department has been working lately. For so long, the Saints played whack-a-mole with personnel. Wait until one unit goes right down the toilet, then attempt to address it… maybe. Since Coach Payton came to town, it doesn’t seem like they’re one step behind anymore. Disqualify Bush if you must, because "they had to take him." I don’t disagree, but look at Roman Harper in the 2nd. Bellamy was still kinda holding his own, but there was no upside with Bellamy. He was on the back end of his career, and he wasn’t gonna get any better. But he could have hit the wall at any moment. Ditto Fred Thomas. Statistically, the pass defense looked alright, but to a large extent it was a mirage, and it certainly wasn’t gonna get any better with Fred. So sign a corner and draft two others. Ditto Hollywood.

Of course, the other side of that coin is that you could argue that none of David, Usama, Harper and Meachem have done much to help those situations (yet.) But you don’t abandon sound strategy because the execution has been lacking.

The same strategy should apply to defensive tackle. The run defense looked fine on the stat sheet last year, but a large part of that is a mirage, and it sure as hell isn’t gonna get any better with the current personnel. Hollis Thomas is 34 years old, asthmatic, and I’m pretty sure that his blood is composed of 74.9% sausage gravy. Brian Young is 30 and has been trending downward ever since he arrived. Kendrick Clancy? Antwan Lake? McKinley Boykin? Orien Harris? That’s like rolling with Dante Ridgeway as your 3rd wideout. Or Joe Horn.

The downside of going DT in the first round is that you’ll probably have to trade up for one of the two elite DTs. And the last time the Saints traded up for a DT, it was Jonathan Sullivan, therefore OMG THE SAINTS SHOULD NEVER TRADE UP FOR A DT EVER AGAIN!!!!! On the other hand, if you can’t trade up or aren’t willing to pay the price to trade up, the second tier of DTs all seem to be an OMGREACH!!!! at the 10th pick. And there seem to be a handful of second round DT options. So Occam’s Razor would suggest that a DT in the first is unlikely.

The First Round Candidates

• Glenn Dorsey (LSU)
  • Pros: Not a single ounce of Jonathan Sullivan in him. Work ethic is particularly important when it comes to the big fat guys doing the grunt work inside. Dominated at the highest levels of college football. Knows what he’s doing, not a whole lot of coaching up required and could hit the ground running from day one. Would be absolutely HILARIOUS to see the heads exploding on message boards after the Saints not only trade up… not only trade up for a DT… but trade up for a DT that’s also an OMGHOMERPICK!!!!!! There’s just not a whole lot in this world that’s better than watching the LSU-hater faction of internet Saints fans squirm and bitch and moan as LSU/Saints fans dance a pantsless jig. Again. For about the hundredth time so far this decade.
  • Cons: Unless Sean Payton is willing to wear a Hawaiian shirt and fake dreads to the festivities and give up the better part of two draft classes to move up, chances are it’s a pipe dream. Atlanta is probably gonna take him at 3, and even if you’re willing to trade up that high, there’s very little chance you’re gonna be able to do it with the Falcons. Like any management position, there’s a significant cover your ass factor that goes along with being a GM. Atlanta’s GM would be hearing "How could you let the Saints have Dorsey?" and Loomis would be hearing "How could you give up that much to the Falcons?" If by some chance Dorsey falls past the Falcons, it’s probably only gonna get harder to find a partner to trade up with as his perceived "value" rises the farther he drops. Seems most people are willing to look past the injury concerns, but I’m not. Sure, the guy is a warrior, and that’s great. But I don’t look at his history of playing through pain as an indication that he’ll be able to do that indefinitely. Rather, I look at it as "the clock is ticking." And wouldn’t it be just soooo Saints to draft a guy with Hall Of Fame talent, the Heart Of A Champion™, everything you could possibly want in a player, at a position of great need, and have his knee explode three seconds after he deposits his billion dollar rookie signing bonus?
• Sedrick Ellis (Southern Cal)
  • Pros: Probably every bit as good as Dorsey, for most of the same reasons.
  • Cons: Fuck USC.

Ideally, one of these two guys falls to 10 and Coach Payton agrees to pose for a Sports Illustrated cover in a wedding dress. On the other hand, word on the street is that SI no longer takes calls from the Saints after Jim Haslett pitched a beach-themed cover shot of himself in a banana hammock and Jonathan Sullivan in a string bikini.

(Oh you’re damn right that pic will eventually end up plastered somewhere on this here blog. Just when you least expect it….)

Realistically, the Saints are probably boned for the time being as far as defensive tackle is concerned. North Carolina’s Kentwan Balmer could end up a first round pick too, which at first glance could be great. Trade down with somebody and then take Balmer lower than 10th while reaping the lagniappe. Everybody wins, right? Right. Except that Balmer has Sullivan written all over him. Not physically, but in a "I done got paid, why the fuck should I listen to you, coach?" kind of way.

Meantime, there are some decent, not great, options in the second round. So you could always go that route, although each of your second round options come with their own personal downsides… mainly questions as to whether or not they’re thugs, and/or questions as to whether or not they’ll give a shit once they get their money. You’ve gotta figure that the Saints want no part of either.

moosedenied’s official position is that the best fit for this team in the first round of this particular draft is Ellis. The only question is the price of trading up to get him. Dorsey will be too expensive, if not impossible (pending Atlanta) to get. And while guys like Balmer, Trevor Laws, Pat Sims, Dre Moore and others are worthy of later picks, each carries a significant Sullivanesque bust factor, and none can be counted on to provide a significant positive impact this fall. Our position is that an elite rookie DT can provide the impact the Saints need on defense, both short-term and long-term. Ellis is probably the more realistic option, and quite frankly, probably the better option vs. Dorsey, all things considered.

Next up, unless I change my mind, the linebackers. Otherwise known as "More than you ever wanted to read about Keith Rivers."

Want a DT? Who you got? (That’s my way of saying "Leave a football related comment for once, asshole! Yeah, I’m talkin’ to you, Falco lyrics research boy!" )