When somebody tells me in week 6 that Atlanta and Tampa both kinda blow? I want to know why.

So we sent Buddy, Mac and Scott on a 2600-mile cross-country road trip to the Library of Congress so that they could investigate these claims and discover the truth by poring over the stats at NFL.com on Buddy's laptop.

And what they found? Was… shocking.

It's true. Tampa and Atlanta both kinda blow. And they're going down. Hard.

Oh, I know, I know. It's not wise to count your chickens. Gotta stay focused, take them one game at a time, don't look too far ahead, don't be distracted by things you can't control. Fortunately for me, I'm just a fan, and therefore don't control jack shit. So I'm gonna go ahead and indulge in a little chicken counting, thank you very much.

And it seems pretty obvious at this point that the Saints have a shitload more of them than anybody else in the NFC South. Better yet, Mac discovered that they also have the warmest asses in the division. You know, to facilitate the hatching of the aforementioned eggs.

Sure, the Saints have their issues. No question about it. Just like every other team in the league. We could rehash them like they're doing at every other Saints-themed web site on the internet, but that would just bore the shit out of you. Instead, today we're gonna focus on the incompetence of the opponents. Hey, it's as big a factor as any. Am I right, NFC West teams? High five!

Let's start with this weekend's opponent. You know, those dudes who got skulldragged 48-3 by Alex fuckin' Smith(!!!) and the "No, seriously, they're actually legitimately good now! For real this time!" San Francisco 49ers last weekend? The ones who, according to several 49er players, pretty much quit sometime in the second quarter? Yeah, those dudes.

There's been a lot of talk this week about how the Saints could basically put the NFC South in the Camel Clutch this weekend with a win at Tampa. I'm gonna go juuuuust a bit further with that notion and predict that not only will that happen, it's gonna be a good bit easier than last week's game at Carolina. Why? Because, quite simply, all indications are that Carolina is better than Tampa.

I know that Josh.0 is supposed to have us all soiling our pants. After all, he's basically Cam Newton, only better, because he has a couple years of NFL experience under his belt, right?

Well, he's got 3 passing touchdowns to 6 interceptions so far. And his 74.1 passer rating is 29th in the league. That's 14 spots behind Cam. 8 spots behind The Great Matty Ice. Worst in the NFCS. Hell, it's just barely above Blaine Gabbert for crying out loud. He remains on pace for a career high in interceptions, and he's regressed in pretty much every category from last season.

They're 20th in total offense, 20th in passing offense, 16th in rushing offense and 28th in scoring offense. 23rd in total defense, 20th in passing defense, 24th in rushing defense and 22nd in scoring defense. Tampa has the worst offense in the division and they're basically tied with Atlanta for the worst defense in the division.

Or, in other words, they pretty much blow.

"Yeah but Wang, those stats/rankings/etc. are skewed because San Francisco beat them 48-3 last week."

Yeah, but San Francisco beat them 48-3 last week.

Not Green Bay, not New England, not Detroit, not the Saints. San Francisco. 48-3. This just in: 4-1 record notwithstanding, San Francisco kinda blows too. Yeah, still.

Go have a look at Tampa's head-to-head stats. Opponents on the whole are beating them in pretty much every aspect of the game. Not all of 'em, but close enough. This, despite the fact that they haven't played anybody (except Detroit) let alone actually beat anybody. Their wins have come against the 1-4 Vikings by 4, the 0-5 Fightin' Curtis Painters by 7 at home, and the craptastic 2-3 Falcons by 3 at home (more on that later.)

And it's about to get worse. A lot worse. Because they're about to have to play the Saints. Probably without LeGarrette Blount (their entire rushing game) and without Gerald McCoy. Then they have to go to London to play Chicago. Then after the bye, they've got the Saints, Houston and Green Bay all right in a row. Oooooh, that's gotta hurt.

Hope the Bucs enjoyed that 3-1. Because they're gonna have 6 or 7 losses by Thanksgiving.

And then there's The Great Matty Ice and The Great Julio Jones and the 2011 NFC South Offseason Champion Atlanta Falcons.

This just in: they blow too.

A lot.

19th in total offense, 14th in passing offense, 23rd in rushing offense, 21st in scoring offense. 24th in total defense, 28th in passing defense, 24th in scoring defense. They too are getting beaten by their collective opponents in pretty much every aspect of the game.

They're already 2-3, and they're no more than a couple or three plays from being 0-5, for crying out loud. And much like Tampa, they haven't played anybody either (except Green Bay) let alone beat anybody. Their two wins were over Mike Kafka and the 1-4 Dream Team Eagles by 4 at home, and by 2 over Pete Carroll and his two-time defending AP National Champion Seahawks. Guh. Green Bay beat them by 11 at the Georgia Dome, and Chicago beat them by 18!

And at the risk of repeating myself, because it can't be said enough, they're no more than a couple or three plays from being 0-5. That horseshoe they had stuck up their ass last year? Well, it's apparently still there. It's just got a much tougher job this year, because the Falcons blow to a far greater degree than they did last year.

Hey assholes, 2010 was The Year. Way to choke it away.

The Great Matty Ice has a passer rating of 79.9, good for 21st in the league. On pace for a career low. He's looking up at Jay Cutler, Tarvaris Jackson and Donovan McNabb. Oof. He's on pace to absolutely obliterate his previous career high in interceptions, and he's already matched his career high with 3 fumbles lost.

And the skidmarks in Matty Ice's pants are about to get a lot more nasty than they already were. Because, I'm calling it now, Camrolina is about to march into the Georgia Dome this weekend and drop the Falcons into the NFC South basement at 2-4.

Then the Falcons go to Detroit.

Then they get the Saints on Nov 13.

Much like the Bucs, the Falcons are gonna have at least 6 losses by Thanksgiving too. Have fun with all that, assholes.

And as for the Pants? Well, they might very well be the second best team in the division. Unfortunately for them, they've already got 4 losses, including one head-to-head against the Saints. And between now and New Year's Day in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome for the annual glorified forfeit, there's not a whole lot they can do other than hook the Saints up here and there by upsetting various other NFC teams. Geaux Pants! Must suck for you, but it sure doesn't suck for us. High five! Come on Steve Smiff, don't leave me hanging over here!

So you'll just have to forgive me for calling it with 0 precincts reporting. But according to these here exit polls, #wegotthis. In a landslide.

Meantime, the Saints might not (yet) be the best team in the NFC. But here are two things to keep in mind:

1. Detroit and Green Bay still have to play each other twice. So either they both take a loss, or one of the two takes 2 losses.

2. Either way, they're in the same division. So let's just assume the worst and they both go 15-1. One of them gets the 2010 Saints playoff seeding treatment. (That is, unless the Competition Committee goes ahead and changes the seeding rules right in the middle of the game around week 15 or so. What, you're gonna put it past 'em?)

(Yeah, I know, a few days ago I said we wouldn't worry about playoff seeding until waaaaaaay down the road. I changed my mind, sue me. Now that the Saints have run away with the division, the time has come to address these bigger issues.)

And both Detroit and Green Bay have just as many question marks as the Saints do at this point.

Green Bay can't run the ball for shit, and their defense blows. Especially their pass defense.

Detroit can't run the ball for shit either, and their defense is fair to middlin' at best. And you just know it's only a matter of time until Stafford goes down again and we get our annual dose of the Drew Stanton Experience. So, yeah, there's that. Here's hoping that inevitability comes to pass sometime between Thanksgiving and December 1. (Hey, I'm not wishing injury on anybody. I'm just choosing a convenient time for what's surely gonna happen anyway.)

Oh shit, 1500 words. Alright, I'll leave you with this to chew on. Not that I'm anywhere near ready to concede an NFCCG taking place anywhere other than the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, but let's humor the notion for a second:

Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau? Or Calvin Johnson at Ford Field? Think about it before you answer. I'm not sure it's necessarily the no-brainer it might seem to be.

Then I went to bed last night thinking how fun it was going to be blogging today about how you were bringing your overrated, coach-killing, non-committed, holier-than-thou, malcontented ass down to the NFC South and proceed to singlehandedly blow up that circus of queers down in Tampa. How you were going to cost them a pick or two, undermine the hell out of whatever credibility Gruden had left in that locker room after he inevitably kicked Fabulous Jeff to the curb, half-ass your way to 7-9 and then retire again in January. For good this time. Unless of course Tampa really, really, really asked nicely. Or would let you go play for someone who did. Oh what fun that would have been.

But nooooo. I wake up this morning to find out that you’re headed to New York City instead. Oh, you’ve gotta be fucking kidding me. Juuuuust lovely. Way to bring my world crashing down around me, Brett.

So now instead of blowing up the Bucs with your incessant asshattery, you’re just gonna blow up some team I haven’t given a crap about since the mid-80′s. And at the same time, you’re gonna be in one of the two cities ESPN covers, and in the same division with the team from the other city ESPN covers.

So just when we thought this all-encompassing media orgy might begin to fizzle out as you started pricing assisted living facilities down in south Florida, you’ve instead joined Brady, Payrod and Manny Big Papi to complete Bristol’s long-awaited Rhombus of Unending Torment. Oh Brett, what hell hath you wrought? They’ve already got the "Countdown to Favre-Brady I" graphic running down in the bottom right corner of the screen. And you’re going to be within driving distance of Peter King’s house too? Son of a…

Thanks a lot, Brett. I hate you and your stupid ass face. The Saints play the Cardinals tonight on ESPN, and I’ve already resigned myself to the fact that if I want to hear any accounts or analysis of what’s actually happening on the field, I’m gonna have to get it en español on ESPN Deportes in between fútbol scores.

If there’s a silver lining here, it’s that by all accounts, having to go to the Jets pisses you off even more than having to go to the Bucs would have. So at least there’s a little schadenfreude in it for me. Know what would be even better? How about you wait until they officially waive Pennington, and then retire rather than report? Come on, Brett. Do that and I’ll think about letting all this other shit slide.

I mean, clearly you weren’t above letting Green Bay draft about ten quarterbacks before up and deciding "Aw shucks, golly gee, I’m just an ole country boy who wants to play himself some football." Apparently you’ve decided to blow a bunch of shit up on your way out and leave a smoldering trail of scorched earth behind you, might as well go all the way with it.

The other silver lining is that you’ve made me a fan of Ted Thompson, Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers. Good for them, for telling the Almighty Brett where he could stick it. I only wish they had been a little less classy about it.

This guy has been jerking us around for years. Every offseason he hems and haws about whether or not he’s coming back. But it’s gotten to the point where just telling him it’s his job and we still want him isn’t enough anymore. He wants to be begged to come back. Well screw that, I’m done kissing this guy’s ass every summer. And I can’t believe he’s got you all suckered into believing his down home country boy "I just want to play football" act. It’s bullshit. Otherwise, he wouldn’t have resisted any and all efforts to trade him to anyone but Minnesota or maybe Chicago. Brett doesn’t just want to play football, he wants to stick it to us because we’re not gonna kiss his ass anymore. And he thinks we ought to just let him, because he’s Brett Favre. Well, suck it, Brett. How about that?

It amazes me that there are so many people out there still fawning over this douche.

Bleeding Heart Message Board Fanboy has been asking "If Drew Brees were to end up having a Favre-like run with the Saints, and then at the end of his career did the same thing Brett’s doing, wouldn’t you still be his fan and hope that he got what he wanted?" My answer is no. I could let Drew pass on waffling over retirement… one time. I understand it’s a hard decision. I understand that many recently-retired athletes end up with a gaping void in their souls, and they’ve just gotta come back for one more go. In my opinion, you get to do that once. Not four or five times. And you absolutely, positively do not get to demand that the team release you out of "respect" so that you can go play for a division rival.

Fortunately for us, that will never happen. Drew Brees be not schmuck, be not obnoxious, be not bellbottom bummer or asshole. Drew remembers the story of Pablo Picasso. He walks down your street, girls cannot resist his stare. Drew Brees will never get called an asshole.

Not like you.

It’s (meaningless exhibition) gameday, bitches! If you manage to make it all the way through the Tyler Palko/Todd Blythe/Buck Ortega show and find yourself jonesing for some postgame action where the analysis is slightly more coherent and the speech slightly less slurred than the WWL alternative, tune into Ralph’s Forecast Radio Podcast with Kevin Held. Sometime around 10:30 Central, I’m assuming give or take a little while pending the length of the game. Seriously. I only pimp it because I listen to it and enjoy it.

With any luck, back tomorrow with postgame mockery and baseless cries of impending DOOOOOOM!!!! Oh, the next 5+ months are going to be big, big fun. You’re excited?!? Feel these nipples!

So why is it that I’m about to deny all of that?

Could it be because it’s bullshit?

Or is it because I’m a homer? Actually, it’s plenty of both. But let’s focus on the former.

Let’s start with the offense, because one of the founding principles upon which I base my life is "The longer you can put off vomiting, the better."

It’s no secret that the offense regressed last year. Total offense dropped from 1st in the league to 4th. Scoring dropped from 5th to 12th. But why did it regress?

Was it because the Saints couldn’t run the ball because Dulymus got hurt and Reggie couldn’t carry the load? Well, kinda. The thing is, Reggie wasn’t really asked to "carry the load" after Dulymus went down. He only had 13.1 rushing attempts per game last year, or only 3.4 additional carries vs. 2006. And you might be surprised to find out that Reggie’s yards per carry actually improved in 2007.

Sure, it was only an improvement of 0.1 yards per carry, but the point is that contrary to popular opinion, Reggie didn’t collapse under the weight of being thrust into the "feature back" role. For one thing, he was never really thrust into that role in the first place. (Stecker Ace and Peter Tom combined for 10 more carries than Reggie.) And secondly, he wasn’t any less effective as a rusher last year than he was in 2006. In fact, he was slightly (very slightly) better. The other side of that coin is that he wasn’t a very good rusher in 2006, and the "improvement" I just referred to is all but statistically insignificant.

In fact, the Saints rushing game overall accounted for exactly the same yards per carry as it did in 2006. The problem is that it was 3.7 yards per carry both years. And that sucks in any year. The reason the Saints’ cumulative rushing yards went from 19th in the league to 28th is because Sean Payton chose not to run the ball. And the 3.7 yards per carry is why I don’t necessarily blame him for that.

You could argue, as our friends Mr. Clio and the late Dr. Morris did, that Coach Payton shouldn’t have waited as long as he did to give Pierre Thomas the damn ball. And in hindsight (mine, not theirs, because they were all over it from the get go) there’s plenty of merit to that position. Pete was by far the Saints’ most effective rusher last year, putting up 4.8 yards per carry. If we were to pull some hypotheticals out of our asses and assume that Pete could have maintained that average over 16 games at 20 carries per, he’d have put up 1536 yards.

The problem is that Coach Payton couldn’t afford to pull that kind of hypothetical out of his ass. In the absence of Dulymus, Coach Payton could give the ball to his billion dollar touchdown-waiting-to-happen superstar and hope that the light goes on sooner than later, or give it to his reliable (if not particularly productive) grizzled veteran, or give it to his god of a quarterback and pass all day, or he could assume great things out of an undrafted rookie. The last is the lowest percentage play of the bunch. It just so happens that it might very well have been the best play, we’ll find out as Pete gets more carries, but I don’t think it’s fair to a head coach to expect him to just hand the ball to an undrafted rookie until he has no other choice. This year, there should be no such hesitance.

This is going to sound counterintuitive, but as you know, I love making counterintuitive arguments. Argubaly the bigger issue was in the passing game, and it has little to do with being "pass happy." In fact, I’ll assert that the problem was that Coach Payton played it too conservatively in 2007.

In 2006, the Saints were 5th in passing attempts and 1st in passing yards. Last year, the Saints were 1st in attempts and 3rd in yards. Their net yards per pass attempt dropped a full yard, from 7.5 to 6.5. Devery Henderson dropped off the map. Pass plays of 20+ yards dropped from 65 to 47 and plays of 20+ dropped from 20 to 8.

You could argue that Reggie’s drop in yards per reception (8.4 to 5.7) has something to do with his habit of stepping out of bounds before anyone gets within three yards of him. Then again, you could also blame it on constantly putting your "playmaker" in a position where he always has a thin white tackler who runs the entire length of the field on one side of him. When you’re trying to get a guy "in space" so that he can make plays, doesn’t it defeat the purpose to constantly put a sideline in his way? But it wasn’t just Reggie. With the exception of the tight end position, everybody’s yards per reception dropped.

What all of that indicates to me is that Coach Payton deliberately reeled in the passing offense, probably in an attempt to simulate the ball control factor you usually get from a strong running game and ultimately protect his horrific defense. It didn’t work. All it did was waste a bunch of time that could have been spent scoring.

The good news is that every single "problem" with last year’s offense can be remedied by simply making different playcalling decisions. Start going down the field again in the passing game. Give the ball to Dulymus if he’s able, and Pierre if he’s not. Stop trying to force Reggie’s square peg into a round hole. Get him off the sideline and into the middle of the field. Let him return more punts and kicks. All these things have worked before, and they require no new personnel.

Last year may not have worked out, but it further underscored Coach Payton’s pragmatism. He passed a lot because it worked. He rushed less because it wasn’t working. He tried a shorter passing attack vs. 2006′s more aggressive, wide open game in an attempt to keep the defense off the field. Even though the result might not have been what was intended, the reasoning behind the tweaking was sound.

Based on that proven pragmatism on Payton’s part, we can be confident that the Saints’ offense this fall will return to what worked and abandon what didn’t. We don’t even need to worry about whether or not Dulymus is still a viable NFL tailback, or whether or not Meachem can play, or whether or not Reggie will ever be a top-tier tailback. All that stuff is gravy. The important thing is whether or not Coach Payton will make the proper adjustments to the offensive gameplan. He has given us little reason to believe that he won’t.

On the other side of the ball, it’s a taller order. Before we can start contemplating the notion of the Saints having a defense that even resembles stout, we first have to somehow stop vomiting. Then we have to shower, brush our teeth and gargle several times. There’s just no way to sugarcoat the abomination of a defense the Saints fielded last year. Still, I’m going to give it the old college try.

We can start again with Coach Payton’s pragmatism. In 2006, the Saints couldn’t stop the run for shit, and a lot of the success opponents had running was right over Will Smith. Meantime, statistically, they had the 3rd best pass defense in the league. Somewhere deep down, most of us (but not necessarily me) knew that it was a mirage. Still, the stats don’t lie. And theoretically, that pass defense had been improved with the addition of Jason David. In hindsight, the Jason David Experience was a spectacular failure. But at the time, it was assumed that he’d be an upgrade.

Last year, the run defense improved from 23rd to 13th. And the argument that "teams didn’t have to run on them because they could just pass all day" is a non-starter. Teams only ran on the Saints 10 fewer times in 2007 than 2006. The improvement was legitimate. But it came directly at the expense of the pass rush. They robbed Peter to pay Paul. And why wouldn’t they, given what the circumstances looked like after 2006? It was sound reasoning that turned out not to yield the desired results. Lesson learned. Again, this can be remedied simply by making different decisions.

Unfortunately, as we all know, the problems on defense were a hell of a lot bigger than that. And they’re the kinds of problems that do require new personnel. Preferably personnel that doesn’t suck. But the good news is that the Saints added two bonafide studs right smack dab in the middle of that defense, and a handful of other role players who, at the very least, aren’t the guys who were there last year.

Going from Mark Simoneau to Jonathan Vilma at middle linebacker is like going from Rosie O’Donnell to Eliza Dushku. I don’t think there’s anyone on the planet who doesn’t think that Big Sed is going to be an absolute monster right from day one. Seriously, if you can find a less-than-glowing assessment of Sed from a "legit" source, I’d love to see it. There’s absolutely no reason to think that this guy won’t make a tremendous impact at DT.

Meantime, while Hollis Thomas will be 34, and his ass has its own congressman, somehow he continues to play at a higher level than he had for his last half-decade in Philly. He’s due to hit a wall any minute now and become largely useless, but then again, I’ve been saying that for the last two years. At least now, we don’t have to worry about it so much.

I’m also very excited about the prospect of the rumored 3rd down speed unit on the defensive line, with Smith and Bobby McCray on the ends and Charles Grant moving inside next to either Big Sed or Brian Young. Clearly, it’s an experiment, and it remains to be seen how it works out.

On the other hand, let’s not fool ourselves into assuming that the Saints’ defensive backfield won’t continue to suck. The Saints’ only proven legit defensive back is on the wrong side of 30 and is recovering from an ACL. Let’s not even get started on the guy across from him. Roman Harper was benched at one point last season, and there’s near unanimous agreement that Josh Bullocks should have been benched as well. McKenzie’s return can’t be assumed, nor can his level of play if and when he does return. Meantime, Randall Gay is a career nickel. Usama Young is unproven, and Tracy Porter is a rookie.

If there’s one thing the defensive backfield has going for it, it’s an abundance of bodies, and youth. Young, Porter, Harper, Bullocks, David and Gay are all in their early to mid 20′s. All are still in the age range where significant improvement is possible. Even the oldest of the bunch, Gay, is coming off his best season as a pro. Then again, Gay is the only legitimately projectable upgrade among the DBs. And McKenzie’s status could completely negate that upgrade, or even trump it altogether.

So until we actually see it on the field, any projections of improvement from this unit are little more than wishful thinking. Unless you want to include the "they couldn’t possibly get worse" argument. But we’re talking about the Saints’ defensive backfield here… you’re not gonna really put it past them to actually sink lower, are ya?

The good news is that a legitimately ass-kicking front 7 can mask weaknesses in the defensive backfield to an extent. And there’s little room for argument against the idea that the front seven will be significantly improved.

Further good news is that if (when) Sean Payton re-embraces the idea that a 2-minute scoring drive is better than a 7-minute drive that ends in a punt, the Saints are more than capable of winning 31-28 as often as necessary.

The bottom line is that the 2007 Saints looked a lot worse than they really were. They blew it in week 5 vs. Carolina on an Olindo Mare miss –or– a block of yet another Olindo Mare FG attempt –or– a legitimate-but-never-enforced penalty on Jammal Brown for lining up too far off the line of scrimmage, which negated a touchdown. Not all three of those things had to go differently, just one. They also blew it in week 13 with "the reverse." I’m not going to call it "bad luck" because it wasn’t luck, it was the Saints shitting their pants. 

Still, both of those games were clearly in the bag, and had the Saints won both, they’d have gone to the playoffs over Washington. They weren’t far off. They’re a young team with a young head coach. There were numerous admissions last year by players and coaches alike that they had gotten into their own heads, and the symptoms of that were present frequently. Experience remedies those issues. Being humbled remedies those issues as well. Intangibles should swing back into the Saints’ favor this fall.

I look at the schedule, and I only see four games that right at this very minute I think the Saints are more likely to lose than win. Week 5 vs Adrian Peterson, week 8 vs. the whole London thing, one loss to either Carolina or Tampa, and at Chicago in December. Again. At night this time. I could also see the Saints finally beating the Bears for once, and splitting with both Carolina and Tampa. But since this is the Saints, who are always good for at least one unexpected kick to the crotch out of the blue, I’m going to throw in a wild card loss of a winnable game as well.

Prediction: 11-5, 1st place in the NFC South

Oh, they were good too. They were about as good defensively as the Saints were offensively. That in and of itself qualifies as pretty "lucky", given that half their defense remembers the Taft administration and the other half doesn’t remember the Reagan administration.

But even more than that, Zeus must really have a boner for Fabulous Jeff, a guy who was spanked by Grover Cleveland on two non-consecutive occasions. Either that or Hera was really trying to stick it to Ganymede.

It’s not that Fab Jeff was particularly good. He hasn’t really been particularly good since Paul Tagliabue’s 2001 ban on assless chaps. He only threw for 2440 yards (187.7 yards per game) which was good for 19th in the league. Not surprisingly, he only ran for 116 yards, a career low (not counting 2005 and 2006 when he wasn’t a full time starter.) Tampa’s offense was 16th in passing yards, 18th in total yards and 19th in points scored.

What’s surprising is that they weren’t worse than that. Joey Galloway somehow managed to put up 1000 yards again, despite missing week 17 to attend a reunion of World War I vets. Ike Hilliard managed to put up 722 yards even though he routinely loses pregame foot races against Monte Kiffin. Michael Clayton and Maurice Stovall just suck. Alex Smith is among the least productive starting tight ends in the league as a receiver, and Jerramy Stevens has worse hands than Devery Henderson.

Late in the season last year, when the Bucs’ offense was on the field, FOX and CBS started scrolling a message across the bottom of the screen: "Do not adjust your set. This is actual game speed." It’s nothing short of astounding that this group was even able to put up 20.9 points per game.

Defensively, the Bucs were legitimately very good. Gaines Adams, Barrett Ruud and Tanard Jackson transformed a defense that in 2006 looked like it was about ready to be put out to pasture. Not so much against the run, where Tampa was 17th in the league. But they were 1st in the league against the pass, and 3rd in points allowed, allowing only 16.9 points per game.

We Saints fans know what happens to teams who are very good on one side of the ball, and suck horribly on the other side of the ball. They end up 8-8, give or take a game. And just like the Saints, that’s where Tampa ended up last year.

Oh sure, Tampa fans will scream that they sat their starters in week 17, and coulda shoulda woulda been 10-6. Maybe, but the opponent was The Great Matt Moore. Fabulous Jeff sat, but Luke McCown put up more passing yards than Jeff had put up since week 8. Joey Galloway sat, but Chad Lucas put up 82 yards. In the two weeks prior, Galloway had put up 29 yards and 7 yards. Several defensive starters sat, but Matt Moore still only put up 174 yards passing, Steve Smith only had 48 yards receiving, and the Pants still turned the ball over twice. So I’m not giving Tampa an automatic week 17 win with their starters, and I’m not buying that it was basically a forfeit because they sat a few guys.

Actually, on second thought, I’m going to go ahead and give them week 17. Why? Because I’m about to throw the same kind of thing right back at them, and assert that the Bucs went 9-7 (or 10-6, if you’re a Bucs fan) because they were the luckiest team in the league last year.

Week 12: Washington fumbles in their own territory 4 times over the span of 16 plays. Holy shit. Tampa turns those four fumbles into 1 TD and 3 FGs, or 16 of the 19 points they ended up with on the day. Washington outgained Tampa 316-15 in the second half, and Tampa didn’t have a single first down after halftime. But Jason Campbell threw two 4th quarter INTs in Bucs territory, the second one occurring in the end zone with 7 seconds left on what would have been the winning score for Washington.

"But you’ve got to give the defense credit for creating those turnovers!" Maybe, kinda, I guess. Both INTs were terrible decisions and even worse throws by Campbell. But okay fine, Barber and Kelly made the plays. But the other FOUR turnovers had very little to do with Tampa’s defense at all. The Redskins simply couldn’t hold onto the ball. And each time, it was just after Fabulous Jeff had been holding the ball, so who knows what kinds of lubricants might have been on there.

Week 13: Saints fans might want to skip this part. The Saints are up by 3 with 3:36 left in the game and in possession of the ball at their own 40. The Saints could take it to the 2-minute warning, punt, and pin the Bucs inside their 20. A first down probably ices the game completely. On second down, the entire team completely forgets how to play football. Reggie Bush shits his pants, Devery Henderson shits his pants, and all of a sudden it’s Tampa’s ball at the Saints’ 37.

"But Tampa still had to go 37 yards and score! And Chuckie pulled out the brass ones by going for it on 4th instead of tying the game with a field goal! And the Bucs dominated the rest of that game anyway!" Fine. That doesn’t change the fact that the Saints snatched defeat from the jaws of victory and handed that win over on a platter.

And I’m not even going to count week 9, when the game was iced on an "interception" with 2:39 left, where Jermaine Phillips clearly only got one foot down in bounds, and Arizona couldn’t challenge because they were out of time outs. (I’m not counting it because even if the Cardinals had gotten a TD, it only would have tied the game.)

Elite defense or not, what separated the 9-7, 2007 NFC South Champion Bucs from 8-8 or 7-9 was that they were luckier than a leprechaun banging Scarlett Johansson on a bed of four leaf clovers at the end of a rainbow.

This year? Well, it’s hard to see their defense regressing. Then again, it’s hard to see them getting much better either. If anything, Brian Kelly is gone, and Ronde Barber and Derrick Brooks aren’t getting any younger. Phillip Buchanon played well over his head last year, and is just as likely to regress as he is to maintain. But my assumption is that Tampa’s defense will remain stout, even "elite." Hell, they always are.

But this team is going to continue to sink offensively. It’s only a matter of time until Zeus sends an eagle down to bring Fabulous Jeff to Mount Olympus so they can get that party started. Until then, there’s a good chance he’ll find himself with at least a handful of weeks to luxuriate in the whirlpool and catch up on his Oscar Wilde while Brian Griese… uh… does whatever it is Brian Griese does. Joey Galloway will be 37 (and he really, really hit a wall at the end of last year.) Ike Hilliard is 32. Teeny tiny little Warrick Dunn is 33. Cadillac Williams should be back, at least for a while. But Cadillac Williams isn’t really very good. And they’ve done absolutely nothing to improve their passing game, unless you count Dexter Jackson, Antonio Bryant and Ben Troupe as "something" (hint: you shouldn’t.) They’ll be fortunate if they can average 14 points per game this fall.

And there’s no way in hell the Bucs get as lucky this year as they did last year.

Prediction: 7-9, 3rd place in the NFC South

But this year? Jake’s back, bitches! With one of those stringy, impossible-to-chew parts from a Bojangles™ Brand drumstick grafted onto his throwing elbow. And Jeff Otah! And Jonathan Stewart! And the Pants are going to RESTORE THE ROAR this fall! Or something. Right?

The answer…. is no. Why? Because for all the hand-wringing about how royally screwed the Pants were last year after Jake contracted Tommy John Disease™ and how brutally awful the parade of backups were, did you know that the Pants scored a whopping three fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2006?

That they had 19 passing TDs and 17 INTs, exactly the same as in 2006?
That they scored 7 TDs on the ground, exactly the same as in 2006?
That they posted only 22.75 fewer offensive yards per game than in 2006?
That they only had 2 more turnovers than in 2006, neither of which were INTs? (They were DeShaun Foster fumbles)
That they only lost one more game than they did in 2006?

The point isn’t that the nine different backups that came after Jake were good. They weren’t.
The point isn’t that the Pants’ offense isn’t a problem. It is.
The point isn’t that the Pants won’t be better off if Jake can get through this fall without his arm falling off. They might.

The point is that the prevailing perception of what happened to the Pants last year is wildly inaccurate. To hear most people tell it, the Pants were a 13-3 team who went 4-12 because Jake went down. That their offense went into the shitter when Jake went down and the team went with it.

The reality is that their offense was already in the shitter in 2006 with Jake. 24th in total yards and 27th in scoring.

The perception of the post-Jake offensive dropoff is exaggerated because for the first three weeks of 2007, Jake was having a "resurgent year" and putting up "career numbers"… against the league’s 21st, 23rd and 25th ranked pass defenses. He looked great for three weeks, a lot better than he actually is over a full season these days.

To go from a guy who was playing over his head against bad pass defenses to David Carr and his ridiculous Ted DiBiase gloves will naturally leave a bad taste in your mouth. But over the course of the season, the difference wasn’t nearly as bad as it looked during those first several weeks of the David Carr Experience. I’m not saying there was no dropoff, because clearly there was.

But even if the most wildly optimistic predictions pan out, and a 33 year old QB recovers from Tommy John Disease in less than one calendar year and is "good as new"… 2006 Jake isn’t going to come back and make it all better. Hell, for that matter, 2005 Jake isn’t going to make it all better.

You remember 2005, don’t ya? The year when Jake and Steve Smith went apeshit on the league and the Pants went 11-5 and to the NFC Championship Game? We’re all familiar with the reasons the Pants were so good that year, right?

1. Jake was great because he was healthy, like he will be again this fall.
2. Steve Smith was awesome because he had a legit #2 wideout across from him to free him up to make plays, which he will again this fall with DJ Hackett and/or Dwayne Jarrett.

Bullshit. Both are myths. Here’s the reality:

1. Jake was better in 2004, when the Pants went 7-9, than in 2005. 465 more yards, 5 more TDs, 1 fewer INT.
2. Mushin Muhammad was already gone by 2005. In Smith’s "breakout" 2005 year, the Pants’ second leading receiver was Ricky Proehl with a whopping 414 yards. The following year, when Smith started suffering from not having any other legit WRs on the roster, Keyshawn Johnson put up almost twice as many yards as Proehl did. Hell, even their #3 wideout in 2006 was only 57 yards off Proehl’s total from 2005.

About this time last year, we here at moosedenied asked whether "the real Steve Smith" was the 100-catch, 1600-yard, 12-TD guy from 2005? Or whether he’s the 80/85-catch, 1100-yard, 7/8-TD guy he was in 2003 and 2006? Looks to me like the jury’s in, and he’s the latter. He’s a 10th or 11th in the league kind of guy who blew up for a year once upon a time.

The Pants went 11-5 in 2005 because Stephen Davis was a scoring machine, Steve Smith had his one really big year, and their defense was 3rd in the league by total yards and 5th by points allowed. These days? Stephen Davis is long gone, Steve Smith hasn’t come close to reproducing his 2005 numbers, and the biggest issue of all is that their defense has been on a 2-year slide from "elite" to "barely average."

Over the last three years, the Pants’ league rankings in total defense have dropped from 3 to 7 to 16. 
They’ve dropped in scoring defense from 5 to 8 to 15. 
Their passing defense allowed 15 TDs and produced 23 INTs in their 11-5 year. The last two years, that’s completely flipped. 22 TDs and 14 INTs in both 2006 and 2007. 
Their run defense has gone from 4th to 11th to 18th over the last three years. 
Fumbles recovered? 30 to 17 to 14. 
Sacks? 44 to 40 to 23.
Total points allowed? 259 to 305 to 347.

Julius Peppers went from sack machine to suck machine, but that’s because Mike Rucker sucked on the other end, right? Maybe, but they’re planning to address that issue with Charles Johnson, Stanley McClover or Tyler Brayton? Hey, good luck with that. As for Peppers himself, and his "one fluke bad year", let’s not forget that Peppers only had 2 sacks in the last half of 2006.  Or, in other words, 4.5 sacks over his last 23 games. One bad year, huh? We’ll see about that. Inside, is Damione Lewis any kind of upgrade over Kris Jenkins? If anything, all they’ve gotten is lighter.

Jon Beason and Thomas Davis are bonafide studs at linebacker. And they’ve got a pretty good secondary, although for the past two years, they haven’t been making plays like they did in 2005. But their back 7 is good, so we’ll conveniently just gloss over that and move on.

It seems like the big problem for the Pants’ defense has been the deterioration of the defensive line, both against the run and in rushing the passer. You could also add in the demise of Dan Morgan and the presence of Na’il Diggs instead.

Maybe Julius Peppers suddenly regains his mojo. Maybe somebody steps up on the other end. Maybe they won’t miss Kris Jenkins. Maybe Landon Johnson isn’t the latest in a long line of Bengals linebackers who suddenly doesn’t look nearly as good once he leaves Cincinnati.

Maybe Jake Delhomme becomes a medical marvel, the very first NFL quarterback to do anything in the league after Tommy John surgery. At 33 years old. Maybe Mushin Muhammad isn’t really washed up. Maybe DJ Hackett is capable of better than 45 catches for 610 yards.

Maybe all those 37 things that have to go right for the Pants this year all pan out. But I’m not counting on it.

To me, this looks like a team that’s going into year 3 of one of those retooling phases where you don’t necessarily have to drop off the map and into 5-11 land. Instead, you can hover around 8-8 while trying to find replacements for guys like Mike Minter, Brentson Buckner, Mike Rucker, Dan Morgan, Kris Jenkins, etc. I think the Pants’ organization clearly knows what it’s doing, and that 7-9 qualifies as "rock bottom" for them, for now, barring some really bad luck. I can’t see them sinking any lower than this, and I think they’re on their way back.

On the other hand, I don’t believe that they were a much better team last year than where they ended up, Jake or no Jake. And I don’t think they’re a much better team than that going into this year either. They’re a work in progress, and while I could definitely see them making a significant leap forward this year, I think it’s far more likely that they’ve got at least one more year in purgatory before really putting it back together. And it might very well be longer than that, pending the QB situation. Have you seen the list of potential free agent QBs for 2009 lately?

Kerry Collins, anyone? Oof.

Prediction: 8-8, 2nd in the NFC South because no way in hell Tampa gets as lucky this year as they got last year

But hey, five to eight years from now? Watch out, bitches! Atlanta’s got themselves a brand spankin’ new "face of the franchise" in the form of… another overrated ACC quarterback with two first names.

There have been rumors that the selection of Matt Ryan was a big misunderstanding in the first place. Evidently the Falcons’ rep actually told Herr Goodell that they wanted to select Glenn Dorsey, but Goodell thought he said "The Next Ken Dorsey."

From a business standpoint, I suppose the sooner you can complete the transition of your overall brand identity from ridin’ dirty to white ‘n’ nerdy, the better. Then again, lately everything the Falcons touch turns to shit, and they wasted little time in putting Ryan in the position of being the league’s current poster boy for insane rookie contracts. Still, I suppose it’s better than being the poster boy for Valtrex, High Times and The National Organization for Puppy Torture. On the other hand, we’re pretty sure nobody in the Falcons’ organization has seen Ryan’s offseason checklist yet:

• Learn playbook
• Contract venereal disease from Haitian tranny
• Secure fake identification in the name of "Phil Guatemala"
• Assemble small staff of Dominican immigrants to stock walk-in humidor with fat ass blunts
• Bankroll establishment of offshore monkey knife-fighting club

Overrated ACC quarterback with two first names. How could the Falcons not see this coming? Arthur Blank will be musing on national tee vee about his propensity to overindulge on fried chicken any day now. But hey, at least the Falcons didn’t have to trade two picks which eventually became Ladainian Tomlinson and Drew Brees this time. So they’ve got that going for ‘em.

But in the short term, while the new ass of the franchise familiarizes itself with the feel of that sweet Georgia pine, it’s Joey The Great and Chris Redman once again. Apparently the Falcons are loathe to throw Ryan into the fire right off the bat, fearing that might ruin him. Apparently they’re oblivious to the fact that that already happened as soon as he donned his first Falcons cap.

Ironically, legendary douchebag Bobby Petrino was singlehandedly responsible for arguably the Falcons’ best offseason move: removing Bobby Petrino as head coach. The only thing he could have done that would have been better than that would have been to actually set himself on fire.

Of course, rather than just doing the right thing and taking the interim tag off of wildly popular interim head coach Emmitt Thomas, who was four seconds away from going 2-1 with the steaming pile of shit Petrino left him (a pile of shit that had already quit on Petrino weeks earlier,) the Falcons basically told Thomas to go fuck himself, opting instead to go on a bizarre wild goose chase for a head coach and a new GM, in no particular order.

The Falcons wanted to make a big splash with a "name" guy. Somebody like Mike Singletary or Jason Garrett or Pete Carroll. Mission accomplished, as the Falcons eventually decided on……. Mike Smith.

That name again is Mike Smith. Otherwise known as this guy:

Smith comes with a good reputation, having been the defensive coordinator for Jacksonville, and Baltimore before that. Unfortunately, the Falcons don’t have John Henderson, Marcus Stroud, Rashean Mathis, Ray Lewis, Peter Boulware or Ed Reed. Hell, they don’t even have DeAngelo Hall anymore.

I’m sure Smith will work wonders with Von Hutchins, Erik Coleman, Deke Cooper and the 80 year old Lawyer Milloy.

Up front, former #8 overall pick Jamaal Anderson racked up a whopping 30 tackles and zero sacks, and is a regular on all the 2007 "bust" lists. But I’m sure that was all Hue Jackson’s fault. John Abraham had a nice year on the other end. But up the middle, well, let’s just say the Falcons are probably wishing they had Antwan Lake back right about now.

26th in the league against the run. 23rd against the pass, and that was with DeAngelo Hall. 29th in total defense and 29th in scoring defense. How bad was it? They were worse than the Saints.

Yeah, they didn’t need Dorsey. Or Hall, for that matter. What they needed was MIKE SMITH! That name again is Mike Smith.

Meanwhile, over on the offensive side of the ball, the Falcons fell from 3rd in the league in rushing in 2006 to 26th in 2007.

So they got rid of their leading rusher. Guh.

Oh, I kid. Sure, Warrick Dunn might very well be Warrick Done (although he did put up 1100 yards in 2006, back when the Falcons had a QB under center who people still laughed at, but they knew he could hurt you if you weren’t careful.) Jerious Norwood put up 6 yards a carry in limited opportunities last year. And the big offseason acquisition was Michael "The Burner" Turner. Most people seem to think that Turner should be quite a significant upgrade after what he has shown while backing up LT in San Diego.

There’s only one problem with that. San Diego’s offensive line is… you know… good. Atlanta’s? Not so much. And with the dynamic duo of Joey and Redman under center again in 2008, that line will be facing 8-man fronts all year. The same 8-man fronts that made Warrick Dunn look washed up, and made Roddy White and Laurent Robinson look like they might not suck.

This, of course, is a no-brainer call for this season. Even Falcons fans don’t think this team is going to do anything this year. Nobody does. The only argument is whether the worst is behind them, and this is the year they start their march back towards something resembling respectability, or whether rock bottom is still a ways down yet.

There are decent arguments for both positions.

IIt’s hard to imagine Mike Smith being a bigger douchebag than Petrino. On the other hand, who the fuck is Mike Smith?

The Ron Mexico saga is no longer hanging over the team. On the other hand, Matt Ryan is going to be one hell of an expensive bench ornament this season until everbody has had about enough of Joey and Redman, and by the time the Chris Miller Experience Part II gets going, it’ll be too late for this year.

Everything else they’ve done, in the short term, is deck chairs on the Titanic.

I nailed the fuck out of the 2007 Falcons’ fate about this time last year. Based on what they’ve done over the offseason, I don’t see where they’ve gotten significantly better or worse. All I see is a team that’s poised to be around the 4-12 mark, give or take a game, for the next handful of years at minimum. If they’re lucky. And that ought to be big fun.

But hey, if you’re a Falcons fan, you’ve gotta be feeling pretty good about these guys being your braintrust for the next half decade, eh?

Good times.

Prediction: 4-12, 4th place in the NFC South for as far as the eye can see