Okay, it’s official. I’m an asshole (gasps of disbelief fill the internet) and I have no idea what I’m talking about. Ralph is an asshole too. What a couple of buffoons we were for asserting that the Saints simply can’t run the ball consistently and that there’s no point in trying to "commit to the run."
Sean Payton? The third member of the asshole tribunal. You tried to tell us, but we wouldn’t listen. All this time, all the Saints had to do was to run the ball 30 times and presto, Reggie’s all of a sudden good for 8 yards a carry and Pierre’s good for 6.4 a carry. All it took was a "commitment." Right?
Fortunately, Sean Payton finally realized that the only reason the Saints haven’t been putting up 150+ rushing yards per game is because he hasn’t let them. Right? But Sunday’s game proved it. And everything’s gonna be all better from now on. Right?
Here is the part where I bore your balls off yet again with statistics DAMNABLE LIES!!!!
On the season, the Saints have run 829 total plays from scrimmage. 504 of those plays (60.79%) have been passes and 325 (39.2%) have been runs.
Sunday, the Saints ran 60 plays from scrimmage if you don’t count Drew Brees’ two "rushing attempts." 32 (53.33%) were passes and 28 (46.66%) were legitimate, non-Drew rushing attempts.
So the difference between Sunday’s "balanced offense" and this season’s typical "unbalanced, pass-happy" offense was a whopping 7.5% swing to the rush vs. the pass. Or in other words, a whole 4.5 plays.
But I suppose that’s been the point all along, right? That those 4.5 more rushing attempts and the resulting "balance" are the difference between 95.7 rushing yards per game and 184?
They didn’t run Reggie Bush any more often than usual. In fact, Reggie’s 10 carries are actually a little lower than usual. In the 9 games so far this year in which Reggie has posted rushing stats, he’s had more than 10 carries in 4 of them. He’s had exactly 10 in 3 of them (including yesterday) and fewer than 10 in 2 of them, including two Sundays ago vs. Tampa when he was still obviously injured.
The difference wasn’t the number of carries, the difference was that he popped off a 43 yard run.
Five minutes into the game. On his first carry.
It had nothing to do with Reggie "getting into a rhythm" due to a "commitment to the run."
It was also the longest carry of Reggie’s career to date. So as far as we know right now, you can count on Reggie popping one of those about once every 412 carries. Yay? So I guess with more of a "commitment to the run" maybe he’ll pop another one of those sometime in 2010.
To be fair, even if you temporarily disregard the average-skewing long run, Reggie was still averaging 4.11 yards per carry yesterday. That’s a bonafide good day for him. And hey, that long run did in fact happen. So good for him. I’m not trying to diminish what he accomplished yesterday. He played well.
Pierre Thomas’ performance is a little more striking. No, make that a lot more striking.
The Saints are 3-1 over their last 4 games. In those 4 games, Pierre has had 16, 15, 11 and 16 carries. The 11-carry game was the lone loss, and Pierre’s least impressive performance (3.1 ypc) over that span. In the other 3 games, all wins, Pierre has put up 5.5, 5.8 and 6.4 ypc with more opportunities. That’s 88, 87 and 102 rushing yards for Pierre in the Saints’ last 3 wins.
As recently as last week, I’ve been in "I need to see more before I believe it" mode with regard to Pierre. But I tell you what, at this point we’re talking 4 consecutive games. A whole 1/4 of a season. 58 carries for 311 yards at a rate of 5.36 yards per carry.
The "small sample size" position I’ve been maintaining is getting harder to defend. His average now stands at 4.9 yards per carry over the entire season, 94 carries. This guy is officially EARN(ing) IT.
And by IT, I mean a shitload more carries. Consistently. On a week to week basis. A legit shot at being this team’s every-week "workhorse" tailback.
Pending the issue of stamina, which at this point is still somewhat of an unknown, these last four weeks pretty clearly indicate that Pierre is a legit NFL starting tailback. 5.36 yards per carry over a quarter of a season isn’t necessarily proof positive, but it’s too significant a sample to ignore.
That being said, for all the "We told ya so"s being aimed at Sean Payton today, I’m sorry to have to be the one to remind you all that before yesterday, there had been no indication that the Saints were capable of putting up anywhere near 184 yards rushing. And Sunday’s game notwithstanding, there’s no indication that they’ll be able to produce that next week. Or the next. Or the next.
It was one game. Against the league’s 22nd ranked rush defense.
Pierre has never put up 6.4 yards per carry in a game before with double-digit carries. Reggie has never put up 8.0 yards per carry, nor has he ever popped a 43-yarder. What we saw yesterday was a statistically anomalous performance.
By two backs. On the same day.
It was the perfect storm of Saints rushing competence. And that’s great. But those of you who are screaming "I told you so" today have the chicken/egg causality issue backwards.
The rushing success wasn’t a result of the 4.5 extra carries. Hell, it wasn’t even the most rushing attempts the Saints have had in a game this season.
The increased number of carries was a result of the success.
Early success on the ground is not something the Saints have benefitted from very often, and it’s gonna take a hell of a lot more than one instance before Sean Payton can count on it on a given week.
If Reggie and Pierre both rush for their season averages per carry yesterday, the Saints put up 115 yards rushing. And that’s great. But the Saints would have lost. Hell, they still might have lost yesterday if not for an 88 yard kickoff return and a Jason David interception.
"Commitment to the run" didn’t result in significantly more scoring for the Saints (28.2 points per game) yesterday. Nor did it result in significantly less scoring for Atlanta (24.8 points per game.) It didn’t keep the Saints’ defense off the field, Atlanta won the time of possession battle by almost 6 minutes.
So cheer the 6.57 yards per carry as a team. Hell yeah, I’ll be cheering right along with you.
But realize that it’s the 6.57 yards per carry that you’re cheering for, not the "30 carries" (or 28 non-Drew carries.)
And realize that the former isn’t a result of the latter. It never has been before, I’m not sure why yesterday should be regarded any differently.
Rather, as usual, the latter was a result of the former. And the difference it made is largely limited to the fact that it suited your personal preference.
Meantime, if throwing "I told you so"s in Sean Payton’s general direction does it for ya, then more power to ya. I guess.
And if you wanna go ahead and hold your breath in anticipation of 30 carries for [some large number that greatly exceeds our average over the last 3 years] is all of a sudden going to become "The New Normal" and that balance for balance’s sake is going to carry the Saints to the Super Bowl… well, uh…
Hey, good luck with that. Hope it works out for ya. I’m gonna go ahead and opt to keep breathing for now, thank you very much.
To add to your point, the big runs came off of delayed draws – again set up by the pass or our pass-happy reputation. Success off of traditional runs came after these big runs and the Falcons were playing more on their heels.
Favorite call was the start of the last drive that killed the clock. Expecting the run to eat some clock, Drew fakes the pitch, pivots and hits Shockey in the flat. The success of the subsequent runs, in that drive, were set up by that pass.
And I love the way PT finishes off runs. The toss sweep on the play that secured the last first down was a great. If we run that play with Reggie, I see him getting caught in the backfield while trying to pick a running lane.
Finally, I love Mike Smith for electing to punt on fourth and five at midfield. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I guess he forgot they converted 7 out of 12 third downs, including a 21 yarder. And that neither defense was having any second half success. Down by four, they needed a td and that was their best shot at it.
Regardless, teams need to fear that Reggie will get the ball enough times to break a 43 yard run. Along the way he will probably get runs of 3, 2, -5, and 7. And lots of receptions, too. But opposing defenses need to think that at some point he’s going to get free.
Pierre Thomas deserves a chance to lose the job. He’s been consistent and it’s been good.
As usual, Jason David (who sucks) watched a rookie quarterback throw the ball right to him. It was nice to see him make an easy catch and nice run. Did I just say that?
Is this post another Peter Finney parody? Lots of one sentence paragraphs for dramatic effect.
Anyway, most of the time I agree with you, but I’m having a hard time here. The closer the play calls get to 50/50 (even if it’s only 7.5%), the more the run is respected, and all of a sudden we’re a bit less of a one trick pony. It’s not all about stats. It’s about the guy in the other locker room telling himself that he really does have to respect the play action and not just drop back into coverage. So I don’t think your DAMNABLE LIES tell the entire story.
At the same time, I don’t expect this “commitment” to hold. I’m glad Payton put in the time to game plan with the run in mind (our run schemes were just more effective this week), but I fully expect Drew to throw at least 50 times this week at Chicago in inclement weather.
Sadly I agree with funnyHat.
If we can show we CAN run the ball, it will open up even more for big plays for Brees. Right now he has to work for everything as everyone and their dog knows we are going to throw it 9 zillion times a game. I would like to imagine the Bears coaching staff had a panic attack about having to prep their defense to defend the run as well as the air.
“Is this post another Peter Finney parody? Lots of one sentence paragraphs for dramatic effect.”
I was wondering if anybody would notice that. Actually, I went back and whipped some air into it intentionally after initially publishing it. Mainly it was so that there would be text down where the Dirty Coast Yat Chick’s rack is.
I agree that stats don’t always tell the full story. I actually get taken to task pretty regularly for “leaning on stats” too much for some people’s tastes. Guilty as charged. There’s no question that stats can sometimes be specious, and there are no airtight arguments. Ultimately, these are all opinions, and there’s always room for reasonable people to disagree. I just always feel more confident that I’m on the right track when I’m arguing WITH the stats, vs. arguing against them.
Re: opponents respecting the run, I think Ralph Malbrough said it a lot more succinctly than I did. “It’s not about running the ball MORE, it’s about running the ball BETTER.” I think the latter applies more to Sunday than the former. A lot more.
Just showing the opponent that you’re willing to bang your head against a wall doesn’t make them respect the run. Showing them that you’re ABLE to BEAT them with the run is what does the trick.
In my opinion, that is. Your mileage may vary, of course.
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SBB, I agree with every word. Especially about Smith choosing to punt on that last drive. I couldn’t believe he was actually gonna help us out like that. It blew my mind.
Please, sir, may I have a cup of different flavor kool-ade next year?
Where yat? Wang? I need my fix.
Terminally uninspired lately, SBB. I haven’t even felt like talking about that Chicago game in real life. And I haven’t yet decided where I stand on the apparent big issue of the week: “Trade Reggie!” I started working on a “The Year In Pictures” post, but I’m not sure whether or not I’ll finish it. Basically, I’m finding it hard to work up enough mojo to put something out there that I consider worthy.
Had a feeling that might be the case. But, also glad to hear that it isn’t anything serious.
So, stop pouting, you puss. It’s not like you’re aren’t conditioned for disappointment. Write up something that had the potential to be very good but ended up crappy. Just like our performance against Chicago. And our season, for that matter.
Dude, look, if we’re going to go down to the Lions tomorrow, I gotta read me some GM Wang beforehand. It’s gonna be too painful otherwise.
Chew on this stat from nola.com: four times in their history, the Saints have faced a team 0-7 or worse. The Saints have lost all four times. Bucs (twice), Panthers, plus Rams last year.
Please. Save us.
Trade Reggie?!!!!!???! WTF???!!!!!??!!
You seriously consider that? Aaaaaaaaaghgghhghghghh!!!
Grandmaster, you are confusing this grasshopper!
Reggie will lead us to the promised land. I firmly think that.
When I read that (u know what i’m talkin about RBPoBoy) I had to comment.
That statement has about as much intelligence as the Lions have talent and potential.
If the endzones were on the sidelines, Tom Benson’s cabinet would buckle under the massive weight of all the Lombardi trophies it would be holding.